The Warriors' Trade Window, And The Problems That Come With It
The Warriors will have another rematch with the Boston Celtics tonight, and it looks to be a good litmus test for a team that has struggled a bit lately: Despite a successful home record, Golden State dropped three easy games in Chase Center in their last homestand, highlighted largely by the inconsistency that they’ve been identified with all season.
Proponents of the “win now” timeline have been quick to point to the rotation as not being deep enough to make noise in the regular season, let alone the playoffs. And in their defense, in a stretch marred by injuries to emerging rotational players and starters, the clamoring for that kind of insurance is looking more and more necessary. So here’s a recap of the assets the Warriors have, the potential targets they could look to move on, and of course, the issues they’d have doing so.
The Assets
It’s easy to use a blanket term here: The young guns. Players recently drafted by the Warriors who fit the second, “win later” timeline, these would include James Wiseman, Moses Moody, Ryan Rollins, and even Patrick Baldwin Jr. They do not, however, include Jonathan Kuminga, who has shown that he’s ready to fill a rotation spot. Wiseman is (quite literally) the biggest of the bunch, not only because he’s a 7’1 center, but also because his contract is the most expensive.
If the Warriors are going to make an impact move, the only way the money works is if he’s involved in it. Moody, Rollins and PBJ are all deal-sweeteners, incentives for a young team to take on a project piece like Wiseman in exchange for a guy they can’t get much use out of. A team essentially gets a shot towards a full rebuild with a young core with a high potential ceiling.
The Targets
The name we’ve been hearing in Warriors trade rumors for ages now is Jakob Poeltl, and it makes sense why we do: He’s a proven player that fits multiple needs on an expiring contract playing for a team already in a rebuild. For a late-rotation guy in the playoffs, Poeltl fits the profile the Warriors would need him to: Defensive aptitude in the paint, some degree of switch ability, post passing, offensive rebounding, and converting second-chance opportunities.
Another name that’s come up more recently is PJ Washington, a big wing with defensive aptitude who can spread the floor at the 4, and if Chicago decides they want to blow up their status as a mid-level playoff team, then Alex Caruso could become a target as well for similar reasons, but a different position.
The Problems
Now here’s the fun part. The Athletic’s Warriors insider Anthony Slater wrote an article today which encapsulated just about the biggest barrier the Warriors front office has in getting a deal done: A trade is mortgaging their future for a few-month rental because they can’t afford to keep multi-year salaries on their books. So we ask the question: Is capitalizing on a closing window to win another championship worth giving up the potential continuation of team success in years to come?
It doesn’t have an easy answer, but the signs are starting to become clear that it’s going to be one or the other unless the current roster really kicks it up a gear. That comes with its own set of problems: JaMychal Green is injured, Wiseman is injured, Moody isn’t getting minutes, Anthony Lamb and Ty Jerome are playing 20 minutes a game and there’s only a roster spot for one of them into the playoffs, Baldwin Jr. and Rollins are both rookies and need more time. It’s the perfect storm, and a sign that the Dubs may be in trouble.
The Solution?
There isn’t an easy fix-all for the Warriors. A trade doesn’t address the constant turnover issues, lackadaisical defensive commitments, and disruptions in offensive flow they’ve been seeing recently, even amongst the starters who remain the league’s most productive lineup. Playing the guys they have now doesn’t address the holes in the team’s roster construction, primarily on the wing. The most impactful loss so far from last year’s team seems to have been Otto Porter Jr., even though he’s not out for the season in Toronto, so replicating the kind of production he brought on both ends is key.
But you have to wonder where they’ll get it from. Steve Kerr’s kept a tight leash on some of the young guys despite it working out for Jonathan Kuminga. Giving Moses Moody some room to grow in the latter half of the season could work well, especially when a two-way player like Lamb is getting regular rotation minutes on the wing. But even then, Moody’s lack of experience could have some issues when the team gets closer to the playoffs, and if he’s making mistakes playoff-calibre guys can’t afford to make, that becomes a larger issue.
The buyout market could be the place to find a big wing like Rudy Gay for the end-of-rotation area in the playoffs, but the best solution seems to be to make the trade for a rental or two, and adjust the nature of the second timeline. The Warriors locked down Jordan Poole (23 years old) and Andrew Wiggins (27 years old) with contract extensions: What could be their true second timeline is already in-play if those two guys keep producing, and if Kuminga’s trajectory continues to climb.
Looking for complementary pieces around that kind of young core for the sake of getting them experience while also staying competitive now is a productive way to keep up their winning ways for another few years. It would be tough to see potential stars like Wiseman rise with a different franchise, but ultimately, there’s only going to be one Stephen Curry: It seems almost too obvious that he’s the engine of the victory machine, so doing right by him should be of the highest priority.
In Conclusion
Slater’s information makes it seem like the Warriors are not actively shopping around for a major trade. He made a comparison in his article of this season and the 2020-2021 team, where there were some salary dumps at the deadline and nothing more, and pointed to that being the most likely scenario. It’s hard to evaluate which teams would be willing to take on the task of developing Wiseman and Moody in exchange for guys which other teams might have better assets to get. So will the Warriors make a trade? It’s not looking likely unless someone shows the initial interest first, which hasn’t been the case so far.
Should they make a trade though? That’s a far different question, and it’s not one with the clearest answer. Time will tell if whatever the decision is, ends up working.
(Photo credit: Godofredo A. Vásquez / Associated Press)