Steph Curry's 4th Quarter Dominance in the Playoffs
The Warriors in the playoffs and the regular season this year have looked like two completely different teams. The 3rd quarter onslaughts have remained consistent, but where this team was nearly blowing big leads in the game’s final frame, they’ve been shutting the lights off instead. The tightened rotations with more experienced players who know how to execute down the stretch are a big reason, but the X-factor is obvious.
Steph Curry’s rotations have been a little… experimental, this season. Steve Kerr, in an effort to try out some new lineups here and there, took Steph away from his common 12-6-12-6 rotation which he’d been playing in since 2015. This yielded a mixed bag of results, but the main takeaway was that Curry didn’t play enough in the 4th quarter, and his staggered minutes with rests mid-quarter instead of during the break messed with his rhythm.
Now that Steph is back to his old rotation, we’re getting back on track. The Warriors, once again, are getting quality minutes out of their superstar. And he’s debunking narratives left and right that would paint him as anything other than a closer when it’s down to the wire.
There are 4 players left in the dance that are the consensus #1 options for their teams: Curry, Jayson Tatum, Luka Doncic, and Jimmy Butler. These guys are the clear leaders of their teams, and the best players still remaining. Of that pack, Curry averages the most points in the 4th (9.5ppg) while shooting the best (57.1% FG) and playing the least minutes (7.2mpg) out of all of them. In fact, Curry is the leading scorer in the 4th quarter these playoffs in their entirety… And he’s doing it in style, too:
He’s getting his buckets in a variety of ways, too. He’s shooting 62% on stepbacks (50% on threes), 61% on pull-ups (58% on threes), and 85% on his layups (80% on finger rolls). His catch-and-shoot is the only lacking category in terms of shot selection: Everything else, which has come at a much higher volume, has been falling in the 4th all through the playoffs.
One of the most important stats, however, is that his team is 9-2 when he plays in the 4th. The only two games where he didn’t play were the Game 5 blowout against the Grizzlies, and the Game 1 shellacking against the Mavericks. Other than that, Curry’s been leading his team to victory down the home stretch. He’s shattering the long-standing narrative, one that wasn’t true to begin with, that he’s a serial choker in the playoffs.
Another narrative we’ve seen running around recently is Curry’s status as a “screen merchant”. A subset of basketball culture, for whatever reason, refuses to acknowledge that pick-and-rolls are a part of the game. It’s strange behavior, and one that people often use to detract from Curry’s greatness. Even if this argument is ridiculous and stupid to make (because again, screens are a part of the game), the stats tell a different story.
Through the playoffs so far, Steph is ranked as the 3rd best player in terms of percentile amongst players who have played more than 1 game, and taken more than 1 shot per game in isolation situations. Curry ranks second in field goal percentage and third in effective field goal percentage as well. When he gets a matchup he likes, he’s an incredibly difficult cover because of his deep bag and threat of his shot, which he’s been taking advantage of to get to the rim.
In the 4th specifically, 65% of his made shots have been unassisted, and he’s shooting at a 63% clip on shot types where the majority of his field goals made are unassisted. You don’t even need the stats and instead can just give it the eye test to see he’s been better when operating the ball in his hands. He’s a generational talent, and he’s one of the best one-on-one guys in the league.
This is just one clip, but his ability to pump-fake his shot to blow by one guy, and immediately beat the next defender to his spot to put up the shot displays he’s got clear instincts for beating defenders on his own. His unique ability to manipulate the guy checking him’s momentum so that he can get where he wants to go brings to mind an age-old adage: Good scorers take what the defense gives them, but great scorers make the defense give them what they want.
While Steph may not be averaging the most assists or shooting the best (he’s actually shooting a playoff career-low from three right now), he’s still the most impactful, and therefore best, player left in the playoffs. He maximizes the abilities of his teammates, and even when they don’t always pull up to perform, it’s a guarantee that he can go to work and close games himself. Despite the media narratives, there is nobody you’d rather have on your team when the game gets close, than Steph Curry.
(Photo credit: Noah Graham / Getty Images)