What Should the Warriors Do In the Draft?
As of now, the 2020 NBA draft is scheduled to take place on June 25. Because the draft lottery, originally planned for May 19, has been postponed indefinitely, there’s a chance the draft itself will be postponed as well. But for the time being, all teams — including the Warriors — have to behave as though the draft will go through on its expected day.
Golden State’s draft situation is one they haven’t been accustomed to in recent years. They will pick in the lottery for the first time since 2012 and, at the moment, share the best odds of getting the top pick with the Cleveland Cavaliers and Minnesota Timberwolves. In a bizarre season riddled with injuries and on-court mistakes for the Warriors, the organization and fanbase are hoping that the current 15-50 record is the mark of an anomaly for the dynasty rather than the start of a rebuild. In most drafts, this would be an opportunity for the Warriors front office to select a prospect with tons of potential and put them in a situation where they can learn and develop in a winning culture.
This year’s draft is not most drafts. There is no standout phenom or clear best player. There is no hierarchy of the three or four best players the way there was last year with Zion Williamson, Ja Morant and RJ Barrett. In fact, this appears to be the most wide-open draft since 2013, when Anthony Bennett was infamously taken first overall by the Cavaliers. What this means is that the Warriors, in a weird way, simultaneously have more and fewer options than they would have in a normal draft. A draft without a can’t-miss option means that they aren’t locked in to taking a player, but also that it may be harder for them to trade the pick for decent value. Let’s go over what their choices are.
The first, of course, is to simply choose a player and keep him. As the holder of the league’s worst record, the Warriors would be guaranteed a top-three pick if they are still there at the time of the lottery. Players who have been listed as potential top-three picks include: center James Wiseman, who played three games with Memphis to make up the entirety of his collegiate career; Dayton power forward Obi Toppin; LaMelo Ball, the scrutinized guard who has played all around the world but most recently in Australia; Israeli forward Deni Avdija; Georgia shooting guard Anthony Edwards; French guard Killian Hayes and USC big man Onyeka Okongwu. There’s no consensus on the order to rank those seven players or even whether or not those are the actual top seven prospects. It’s almost impossible to find two big boards that agree on so much as a top four.
There is hardly a single pick the Warriors could make, including a handful not mentioned, that would merit overwhelming praise or condemnation. With that being said, if they do choose to use the high pick, Avdija is probably the way to go. After Andrew Wiggins, it’s extremely unclear where the Warriors will go for wing production. Avdija is 6’9”, can pass and handle like a point guard, has a high basketball IQ, is a capable defender and showed tremendous improvement during his time with Maccabi Tel Aviv. This isn’t a perfect comparison, but there’s a chance he could turn into Golden State’s next Andre Iguodala-type player: someone who constantly makes good decisions on offense, provides ball-handling relief and turns in reliable defense. In a draft loaded with question marks, Avdija emerges as the one who fits the Warriors’ needs the best and delivers the highest risk-reward balance.
Another option would be for the Warriors to trade down in the draft, gaining additional assets while also having to pay the draftee less money. The Warriors largely built their dynasty by drafting players outside of the top five, and there are a number of intriguing options projected to go in the mid-to-late first round, including North Carolina point guard Cole Anthony, who was at one time considered a potential top pick prior to injury issues; and small forward Precious Achiuwa, Wiseman’s Memphis teammate. This move, of course, would depend on who the Warriors find as a trading partner. But if they are most interested in someone lower down on big boards, it wouldn’t be surprising to see this happen. They could do so before or during the draft, depending on when they find a team to trade with. If it’s the latter option, Toppin might be the choice with a top-three pick. He has among the highest ceilings of any prospect, but his similarity in playing style to Draymond Green and Eric Paschall could be a knock on him for the Warriors. Therefore, Golden State could pick him and advertise him as a tantalizing piece for other teams, allowing them to get more in return, perhaps even a starting-caliber player via their traded player exception (TPE) worth roughly $17 million.
Finally, the Warriors have the option to not draft this year at all, instead trading their pick for players or a first-round pick in a future draft. This again could involve a player acquired via the TPE — the most intriguing options on that front include Dennis Schröder, Marcus Smart and Kelly Oubre — and it could get even crazier than that. The most outlandish scenarios feature the Warriors packaging the pick, Wiggins and possibly some future picks in an effort to land someone like Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons or even that Greek guy in Milwaukee. Though not out of the question, these trades aren’t super likely — the one for Embiid is probably the most plausible, but would require Philadelphia being willing to give him up in exchange for the pick — and they are entirely contingent on how content those stars are and whether or not their teams feel confident in their chances of re-signing them.
During one of the weirdest periods ever in American history, it’s only fitting that the Warriors are engaged in one of the weirdest draft decisions in franchise history. There is no overwhelming best option — only slightly more and less favorable ones. But this offers a hidden positive: there won’t be an excess of unfair anticipation for next season, whenever that may end up being. Instead, it will all have to play out on the court, perhaps over the course of multiple seasons, and then we’ll know what the Warriors made out of their situation.